Is Europe Prepared for War?
With US support faltering, NATO nations are fortifying the eastern frontier
🎯 Three-Shot Burst
New tech bolsters European borders with Russia
Finland’s entry into NATO in 2023 more than doubled the defence alliance’s border with Russia to almost 2,600km, stretching from the Arctic down to Belarus.
While Moscow is currently tied up with its full-scale invasion of Ukraine, many along this frontier expect Russian President Putin to one day turn his attention to NATO’s eastern flank. NATO secretary-general Mark Rutte warned last month that Moscow could be ready to use force against the alliance “within five years”.
The FT has published a visual story demonstrating how each European state bordering Russia is using advanced tech to prepare for aggression.
Caught red handed: Moscow is already taking steps to increase its regional presence. Satellite imagery shows increased activity at Russian bases close to NATO’s eastern flank — including the airfields of Levashovo, Kamenka and Olenya, the target of Ukrainian drone attacks. New storage buildings have appeared at Petrozavodsk, about 175km from Finland’s border, while areas have been cleared and new tarmac laid for aircraft at the once retired airbase of Severomorsk-1, about 120km east of Norway.
Bottom line: Reinforcements to the border with Russia are arriving via a combination of modernized military technologies, such as missile defence systems, cyber defence capabilities and enhanced intelligence gathering. This includes developing new command and control systems, and investing in emerging technologies like AI and hypersonic systems.
Multinational battalions have also been placed in each of the Baltic states and Poland, with Germany upgrading its presence in Lithuania in the coming years to a full brigade of about 5,000 soldiers — about seven times its current number in the country. The idea is that foreign troops from the likes of the US, UK, France and Canada would also be involved from the start of any conflict.
Many of the eastern European NATO countries are rushing to increase their defence spending to fill gaps in military capabilities. But some question whether the extra investment in increasing defence production capacity and promoting joint procurement initiatives to ensure the availability of necessary equipment and supplies, will arrive in time.
Related:
What a stronger Europe means for America:
Ukraine’s drone wall is Europe’s first line of defence against Russia. Estonia is preparing its own drone wall, set to be ready by 2027
The Centre for Strategic and International Studies recently shared a presentation on the evolution of modern warfare in the Russia and Ukraine war. Researchers focused on how both sides employ unmanned systems on the battlefield with AI and autonomy
Goldman Sachs on European Defence: Five of the 20 largest defence companies in the world are European (nine are American). Many of these defence companies have the capacity to ramp up production lines but have lacked the orders to justify such actions
📋 Procurement Update
Fudging the Numbers?
In an April government news release, the province of Saskatchewan said 90 per cent of recent procurement was awarded to “Saskatchewan companies”.
Last week, it was revealed that only 51 per cent of contracts actually went to companies headquartered in Saskatchewan, and only 58 per cent of total contract dollars went to those Saskatchewan-based firms.
Businesses labelled as "Saskatchewan-based" by the province include Crumb Rubber Manufacturing (CRM), based in Newport Beach, Calif., and Mitsubishi of Canada, headquartered in Ontario.
Definition games: The province said its government procurement policy uses the definition for a Saskatchewan-based company laid out in the Canadian Free Trade Agreement, meaning the definition comes from the Government of Canada itself.
Procurement is becoming increasingly politicized, with political theatre and supplier realities pertaining to domestic capacity often in conflict.
Digital services climb down: Earlier this week, Canada conceded on a key demand made by President Trump on rebooting trade talks — cancelling the Digital Services Tax levied on US tech giants. According to the Globe & Mail, that tax was in fact “a mirror held up to an industry Canada doesn’t have — a policy aimed at platforms the country relies on but has no domestic equivalent for”.
“Instead of beginning with the question of how to tax this new economy,” Lachlan Wolfers, a tax partner at KPMG Canada, told The Globe, “it would serve Canada better to consider how it can promote investment and productivity gains in technology domestically, so it can see better tax revenues as an outcome.”
Bottom line: Whether it’s playing definition games on procurement in Saskatchewan, or taxing the new digital economy rather than participating in it, Canada finds itself in a position of not having enough domestic capacity in several suddenly-urgent domains.
For Canada to diversify from US suppliers, while tripling our defence spend, it will require major investments in — and by — real Canadian contractors throughout the supply chain to rebuild our defence industrial base.
Murray Brewster wonders what is truly possible, if the stated goal is to rearm quickly and if Europe's defence industrial base is still in its own rebuilding phase. While a partnership with the Europeans makes good economic sense in the long term, it doesn't appear to be a solution to the immediate rearmament crisis.
💾 Canada’s first Defence Tech Hackathon
September 20 in Toronto
The Icebreaker, in partnership with Build Canada and NordSpace, is excited to host Canada’s first defence tech hackathon.
The Defence Tech Hackathon is a catalyst to jumpstart a world-class ecosystem that builds sovereign capability in Canada. Our goal is to attract top talent, rapidly prototype real-world solutions, and bridge the gap between innovators and military end-users.
By forging new startups, building critical networks, and injecting a sense of urgency into defence innovation, this hackathon lays the foundation for Canada to compete and win on the global stage. We aim to advance the grassroots spirit of current and soon-to-be defence tech entrepreneurs.
We are still finalizing details, but here is what we know so far:
We will aim to rapidly prototype dual-use tech that solves real operational gaps for the Canadian Armed Forces
We are considering a challenge for a prototype platform that ingests multi-modal sensor feeds (satellite, UAV, radar, acoustic, etc.) and fuses them for real-time Arctic domain awareness
If you’re a software engineer who is defence-curious, this could be for you. We are looking for folks with domain expertise/experience in one or more of: defence, dual use tech (software and technology that can be used for both civilian and military applications), or Arctic operations; or who have any prior experience with multi-modal sensor fusion and real-time data platforms
Related:
Independent Robotics, a Montreal-based artificial intelligence (AI) and robotics startup, has been named a winner in the inaugural NATO Innovation Hackathon, sponsored by NATO and the Defence Innovation Accelerator for the North Atlantic (DIANA). The competition – which took place virtually from March 11 to 18 – drew the participation of more than 60 companies globally.
🛥️ Total Spectrum
Defence is having a moment. Even the Aspen Ideas Festival is open to talking about the Future of Warfare, a topic that would normally be offside at the Colorado confab:
Meanwhile, defence even made an appearance at London Climate Action Week, where security was a throughline across the week, and not just energy, but national and economic. Conversations spanned tariffs, defence, and supply chain resilience, reflecting a shift from globalization to regionalization. That’s fueling new investment theses around efficiency, circularity, and hardening systems against disruption.
Related:
Katherine Boyle, General Partner at Andreessen Horowitz, one of the original supporters of defence tech, on its recent rise to prominence:
Why the US Army made four tech executives Lieutenant Colonels
⚔️ Combat Readiness
Patriot Games
Happy 4th of July to our American neighbo(u)rs.
Earlier this week, the US cut shipments of a number of weapons to Ukraine, including Patriot interceptor missiles, a critical part of Kyiv’s air defences.
What is a Patriot?: An air defence system able to shoot ballistic missiles out of the sky. The US system was given to Ukraine in 2023. The Patriot’s main theaters of action are Ukraine as well as in the Middle East, where it has protected US forces and Israel from ballistic missiles launched by Iran or Iran-aligned groups.
Why did the US stop sending them to Ukraine? Low stockpiles. Nearly two years of intense use in both Ukraine and the Middle East have crushed supplies of Patriot missiles, of which only about 500 are made annually, and drawn resources away from other critical weapons systems as well.
Related:
Amid a growing trade and technology war with Washington, Beijing recently banned the US-bound export of certain minerals that are essential in weapons manufacturing. Among them were gallium, antimony, and germanium, critical components of various weapons and ammunition systems, including the Patriot.
“To me, this is the most interesting untold story,” says Eurasia Group research director Marc Gustafson, a former national security intelligence chief, “mostly because the Pentagon cannot talk about it. China’s bans have been crushing for the US defence industry, particularly regarding the weapons the US has been providing to Ukraine and Israel.”
🍁 Canada’s Inaugural Defence Power 50 List
The Icebreaker is excited to announce the opening of nominations for Canada’s inaugural Defence Power 50 List. The list will recognize the most influential leaders and up-and-comers in the defence community who are critical to making the changes Canada needs.
The selection of this inaugural 2025 list is co-chaired by Erin O'Toole, Glenn Cowan, Philippe Lagassé, Sheldon McCormick, and Eliot Pence.
Bottom Line: Nominate someone we should know about today!
🔫 Hot Shots
Not your grandpa’s war: A few friends of the newsletter with a national op-ed on how defence procurement must evolve to meet modern Canadian needs
Same same but different: DND gives itself an extra seven years to meet army and navy readiness targets, lowers air force aims
Same same but different, part deux: Why Canada doesn’t build things anymore
Free riding: Canada’s defence wake-up call should have come from observing global trends, not American ultimatums
Bombs away: US soldiers drop live grenades from drone for the first time, say tactic will soon be part of normal training. The tactic is almost three years old in the Ukraine-Russia war
Howe will we pay for it?: C.D. Howe Institute says NATO spending pledge could push federal deficit as high as $92B. [Fun historical fact: The Canadian War Production Board, led by the American-born Canadian industrialist C.D. Howe, transformed Canada into an industrial powerhouse that turned out ships, aircraft and tanks for the war in Europe and Asia]
Trade-offs: Maintaining public support for increased defence spending will depend on transparent communication about the trade-offs involved
Would you die for Canada?: Recent polling suggests Canadians are more than willing to fight for our country. 16 per cent of Canadians were “absolutely” prepared to die defending Canada, and an additional 22 per cent were prepared to die “depending on the circumstances.” This total of 38 per cent represents more than 12 million people. The poll also found that many Canadians believe the most likely invader would be… America
Fratelli d'Italia: la Repubblica with a long-form piece on the multilateral investment bank aiming to finance rearmament [Eds note: The Icebreaker was pleased to co-host DSRB president Kevin Reed in Toronto last month]
Take it to the bank: Peter Thiel joins tech billionaires backing new lender Erebor to rival Silicon Valley Bank. Its target market would be businesses that were part of the US innovation economy, in particular tech companies focused on virtual currencies, artificial intelligence, defence and manufacturing
Jammed up: Swedish maritime authority has posted an extensive interference warning. Radar, the single most important navigational aid on ships, is now seeing active interference
By the hour: OpenAI takes a page from Palantir, doubles down on consulting services
Arctic defence: How a Comprehensive Arctic Archipelagic Defence Concept, focusing on Canada's land domain, can sustain a permanent, credible, and lethal presence in the Arctic as well as delivering more flexible and complete responses to both conventional and unconventional threats of high- or low-intensity throughout the archipelago
Sovereign capability?: Nvidia acquires Canadian machine learning company CentML
🤝 Meet the Defence Tech Community
The Icebreaker is hosting another meetup, this time on the West Coast
Defence Tech Patio Drop In, August 14 in Victoria, B.C.: Sign up here to join VCs, founders, operators, defence primes, and the defence-curious, over a few cold beers on a sunny patio.
If you’ve got battlefield intel, classified tips, or just want to call in an airstrike on our typos, hit “reply” and sound off. Whether it’s a new tech sighting, a rumour from the mess hall, or feedback on our comms, we want your SITREP.