Last week, The Icebreaker was invited to share our perspective on Canada’s dual use tech landscape at the 2025 Canada–United Kingdom Colloquium convened in Montréal, which included participants from government, military, academia, business, journalism and civil society on the future of security and defence for both of our nations. Thank you to our friends at Montréal International for the invitation.
Next week, The Icebreaker will moderate a panel on Canada’s defence industrial strategy at GCXPO. Sign up here to hear from Katheron Intson (Sentinel R&D), Raquel Garbers (CIGI/DND), Michael Smith (ONE9 Ventures) and Major Tyler Currie (CAF). Defence Minister McGuinty will also be a special guest.
🎯 Three-Shot Burst
Factory Flatline
According to National Bank, real investment in industrial machinery and equipment fell in Q2 to its lowest level on record (data back to 1981). The divergence with the U.S. is nothing short of appalling. How did we get here? Years of excessive regulation, and a chronic lack of ambition by successive governments in promoting domestic transformation of our natural resources—recently made worse by Washington’s protectionist agenda. That failure has eroded Canada’s manufacturing base and left us at risk of becoming irrelevant in global supply chains.
Reality check: The pledge to quickly ramp up military spending to 5% of GDP must help catalyze a reindustrialization. What Canada needs is a wartime multi-pronged strategy that ends the dithering: a competitive tax regime, a sweeping reduction in red tape, and clear laws on how we intend to develop our natural resources. To rearm and reindustrialize we also need to redesign how we think about factories — make them more modular, interoperable, miniaturized, deployable, and energy-light.
Oh Canada: The PM has talked openly about a "new age of economic nationalism and mercantilism", and already reframed defence, procurement, and critical minerals policy around domestic resilience and strategic autonomy.
In that spirit, earlier this week, PM Carney told foreign multinational Anglo American to move its headquarters to Canada if it wants approval to buy Vancouver-based Teck Resources.
But…: Multinationals hate uncertainty. If headquarters relocation becomes Canada’s new price of entry, some bidders will walk, especially in sectors where we need foreign capital most (i.e., battery materials, semiconductors, advanced manufacturing).
Bottom line: This is what defending sovereign capacity looks like in 2025 — there is securing supply chains, and then there is securing the entire chain of command. Canada is using the rules to force global players to build in, not just take from, our country. Now for a defence industrial strategy to match the chess move on Teck.
Related:
The Icebreaker, in partnership with CCI, has helped the Canadian federal government to map the Canadian dual use tech ecosystem, as a critical input into the forthcoming defence industrial strategy… The strategy is in the works, but Secretary of State for Defence Procurement Stephen Fuhr hinted at a few details last week at DSEI pertaining to a new Defence Procurement Agency — which not everyone believes is a good idea — and talked more broadly about the need to become less reliant on the US
Questions loom over Carney’s ‘protectionist’ procurement policy push
Ottawa is talking about building a sovereign cloud but what does that even mean?… Ottawa's new "Canadian Cloud" requirements lock out every major foreign tech giant
Canadian critical mineral policy has evolved and now it’s time to level up
📋 Procurement Update
Spotlight south of the border
💾 Canada’s first Defence Tech Hackathon
Join us Saturday at the DMZ in Toronto!
🚨 Participants are ready. Special guests are confirmed, including Karim Bardeesy, Parliamentary Secretary to the Minister of Industry. And we are cordially inviting you to express interest in joining for the end-of-day pitching, judging, and awarding of the $10K in cash prizes generously provided by NordSpace, as well as the VIP reception to follow at the Three Brewers. To join us, sign up here — space is limited.
Related:
TikTok Nepo Babies: How Nepal’s Gen Z used gaming app Discord to pick PM:
As Nepal burned on Thursday after two days of deadly unrest that ousted a government accused of corruption, thousands of young people gathered in a heated debate to decide their nation’s next leader… They chose Nepal’s next leader in a manner unprecedented for any electoral democracy – through a virtual poll on Discord, a United States-based free messaging platform mainly used by online gamers.
🤝 Sovereign Capability
Launch window: NordSpace has been assigned a new launch authorization spanning September 20 to September 27 for its maiden flight from the Atlantic Spaceport Complex. Stay up to date, and livestream the launch, here
Quantum of solace: Canada had – and lost – its lead in AI. Can it avoid making the same mistake in the next emerging global technology race?… Why quantum technology matters for defence… The short weird life—and potential afterlife—of quantum radar
Atomic revival: Why nuclear is now a booming industry… The year is 1980: How did a country of just 24 million people manage to have 13 CANDU reactors under construction at once at home and abroad?
Canadian satellite leader GHGSat has secured $47M in new funding. The convertible note portion was led by new investor Yaletown Partners, alongside existing investors Fonds de solidarité FTQ and BDC Capital… Canada’s Aerospace industry employs 200,000+ people nationwide
IDEaS is looking for new solutions to help plan electronic warfare missions more accurately and avoid accidentally interfering with our own communication signals, as well as solutions for precise navigation without GPS. Both applications are due October 22nd
Nunavut government: There can be no Arctic sovereignty without Inuit security
Canada’s TACTIQL signs MOU with Kongsberg Geospatial… Glamox’s MARL International teams with Apex Industries to light three new Royal Canadian Navy destroyers
⚔️ Combat Readiness
Russian incursions
Earlier this week, Romania became the second NATO country to report Russian drones in its airspace.
This follows an earlier incident in which 19 Russian drones were flown into neighbouring Poland. Those drones were Gerbera UAS and Shahed imitations, typically used by Russia as cheap decoys to either saturate Ukrainian AD during larger attacks or as sensing sponges to identify Ukrainian GBAD and other assets.
Cost of doing business: The drones were shot down by Polish and allied fighters (F-16, F-35) in cooperation with allied AWACS, Multi Role Tanker Transport, and Patriots ADS. AIM-120C7 AMRAAM and AIM-9X ASRAAM were used. Given that a) these missiles costs ~$1.5 million and ~$500k each, respectively, b) a Gerbera is likely in the ~$10-20k range, and c) the cost of deploying F-35s, F-16s, and AWACS is not exactly peanuts, we can assume that the cost-per-interception curve of this operation was highly unfavourable for NATO.
What are the Russians doing?: With Russian forces so depleted after years of battle in Ukraine, why would they risk NATO invoking Article 5? Some believe Russia is emulating China’s strategy with Taiwan: See how far you can push without generating a response. Get them used to your incursions so they seem normal. Then, use their unpreparedness to strike.
Danger, Will Robinson!: Cheap drones make it easy for Russia to probe Western defences — as well as NATO cohesion — and push boundaries through ‘accidental’ incursions, sabotage, and other hybrid digital attacks. The provocations are designed to intimidate and destabilize without triggering a full-scale NATO response.
Bottom line: The incidents have already triggered NATO’s first coordinated kinetic response to Russian assets within alliance territory, marking a shift from passive surveillance to active defence. It also exposed a critical vulnerability: the proximity of key NATO infrastructure to Ukraine’s borders and its susceptibility to Russian attacks.
Related:
US industrial capacity has been strained far from home, reinforcing the need to rebuild industrial capacity:
🚨The US Air Force used half of its stealth B-2 fleet to strike Iran in Operation Midnight Hammer
🚨 The US Army fired nearly 25% of all THAAD anti-ballistic missile interceptors in this summer’s “12-Day War”
🚨 The Navy fired more Tomahawks against the Houthis in 1 day in Operation Rough Rider than it bought in the previous year combined
…Feeling depleted, Pentagon officials are proposing the US prioritize protecting the homeland and Western Hemisphere.
Russia has reportedly deployed Iskander missiles in Kaliningrad — a strategically significant Russian exclave bordering Poland and Lithuania. This deployment places nuclear‑capable short-range ballistic missiles within striking distance of several NATO countries… Graphic showing how the Russian attack strategy has radically shifted in Ukraine
Are Canada’s political institutions, industrial base, and the public are ready and equipped to support a 21st-century navy in an increasingly unstable world?
Romania is quietly becoming Europe’s defence production powerhouse… At DSEI last week, the UK announced it will mass-produce thousands of Ukrainian-designed interceptor drones under Project Octopus
German Defence Giant Rheinmetall to Open Ammunition Plant in Ukraine
Why do so many Russian still sign up to fight in Ukraine? Big salary payments
How did the Middle East get nuclear weapons?
Anduril Just Won $159M to Give Soldiers Superhuman Vision. Microsoft's IVAS Walked So They Could Run
🔫 Hot Shots
Wolf Pack: Russia now launches swarms of 7–11 Geran-2 UAVs in coordinated packs. A leader drone flies at 1,800–2,000 m to guide the strike, while 4–6 combat Gerans attack from multiple directions. Alongside them, 2–4 cheap $10–15K “Gerbera” decoys force defenders to fire interceptors worth hundreds of thousands… Last week’s drone incursions over Poland confirmed the cost crisis in modern air defence: £400,000 missiles fired at £30,000 targets, and NATO is looking for cheaper ways to counter these waves… Canada has a counter UAS champion of our own… Top Gun without Maverick: Drones ride into the danger zone… Lockheed Martin says dogfights are over in modern air combat
Red ink: Economists expect Canadian federal government’s budget to push deeper into the red as Canada ramps up spending to bolster its military and infrastructure
Grey War: The Times reports that Octopus Energy plans to partner with Ming Yang Smart Energy, a Chinese turbine giant, to deliver up to 6GW of UK wind farms. On the surface: a “groundbreaking” deal promising cheaper bills and greener energy. In reality, it’s a potential national security risk that highlights how adversaries can exploit our supply chains just as effectively as missiles or malware
Deal making: Defence startups are booming as VCs race to rearm Europe… A Canadian innovation is giving the U.K. a new sovereign capability: gun barrel coating… Canada and Spain have formally signed a General Security of Information Agreement (GSOIA)—a binding framework enabling classified information exchange between governments and authorized industry partners… Parent of Canadian shipbuilder Davie to create new U.S. entity, plans to overhaul Texas shipyards
Bad kids table: Silicon Valley enabled brutal mass detention and surveillance in China, internal documents show
Sweeten the pot: South Korean shipyard sweetens its submarine sales pitch to Canada… Why Canada was right to rebuild warship capacity at home… Bombardier CEO argues Canada needs a defence industrial strategy to secure our future
Black mirror: The future of the cognitive battlefield is a nightmare for sovereign defence
What we’re watching & listening to:
How America built the world’s largest weapons export business
Season 2, Episode 1 of the Secure Line podcast, on Canadian intel stories that unfolded over the summer
Breaking the Ice summer series on innovating defence and security in the Arctic
Lloyd Axworthy on the Canadaland podcast
🐸 Meme Warfare
Iran-Contra figures Oliver North and Fawn Hall secretly marry 40 years after scandal: North reconnected with Hall last December, at the funeral for his wife of 56 years
🤝 Meet the Defence Tech Community
The Icebreaker is partnering with York University to tackle the business of dual use tech
On October 1, York University’s annual Ernest C. Mercier Lecture in Entrepreneurial Science — a joint initiative of the Schulich School of Business and Lassonde School of Engineering — will be co-hosted by The Icebreaker. The evening will feature a keynote by NordSpace CEO Rahul Goel, followed by a panel discussion (panelists to be announced) on dual use tech.
Apply to attend if you are interested — spaces are limited.
If you’ve got battlefield intel, classified tips, or just want to call in an airstrike on our typos, hit “reply” and sound off. Whether it’s a new tech sighting, a rumour from the mess hall, or feedback on our comms, we want your SITREP.