Canadians are all-in on defence
...and you get a drone, and you get a drone, everybody gets a drone!
[Eds. note: we’ve been writing this newsletter privately for weeks, and it has become popular by word of mouth in the defence community. By popular demand, we have recently made it public. We promise it will always be free for those who subscribe now.]
🎯 Three-Shot Burst
Canadians are all-in on defence
According to the Angus Reid Institute, Canadians are largely supportive of the federal government’s Monday announcement of its intent to spend two per cent of GDP on defence beginning this fiscal year.
Half (51%) say that Canada should spend to this level, while 17 per cent say they would spend even more – a number that has doubled since March 2024 as questions about the reliability of the United States have percolated.
The survey is also notable for this particular finding:
“Most prefer joining ReArm Europe over U.S. alliance despite knowing it could harm relations with U.S.”
As reported in this newsletter last week (Canada prepares to destigmatize defence), as the government leads, Canadian civic leaders have been quick to take up the cause:
Financial institutions want in: RBC thought leadership head John Stackhouse notes, “we will need a lot more collaboration between business, academia and government, to develop the new weapons of war.”
Civic society wants a piece too: MaRS Discovery District CEO Grace Lee Reynolds signalled her organization’s intent “to mobilize startups and entrepreneurs to tackle national defence”.
Bottom Line: The facts on the ground have changed rapidly over the past 72 hours. Defence spending and participation - a concept that would have been equivalent to smoking a cigarette inside a daycare centre to most civic leaders just days ago - is acceptable now. Nay, it is near mandatory!
But the devil is in the details. PM Carney’s BOREALIS (Bureau of Research Engineering and Advanced Leadership in Innovation and Science) remains nebulously defined, and Ottawa is floating a new Defence Industrial Strategy and a centralized Defence Procurement Agency that are short on specifics.
For our part, we draw your attention to an open letter by the venerable ONE9 defence tech fund, calling on the government to ensure capital and a reliable customer to spur progress in defence.
Related:
Friend of the Icebreaker Philippe Lagassé, distinguished professor of Canadian defence, with a view on what the 2% announcement means for Canada
💣 Arsenal Update
What are the short-run economic multipliers for defence spending?
According to RBC, defence services—which largely represents operating expenditures—has a total GDP multiplier somewhat higher than the economy-wide average and is on par with many other service sectors.
Bottom line: Defence is an investment, and the ROI is strong.
What does all this new money actually buy?
Matt Gurney, another Friend of the Newsletter, over at The Line, interviews Canadian Military Journal editor Christian Leuprecht on what a 17% increase to Canada’s in-year defence budget actually buys.
🤖 Innovation Spotlight
The defence tech startup explosion
Over at Molding Moonshots, a perspective on how defence tech has already exploded outside of Canada.
⚔️ Combat Readiness
Let’s have a smarter national conversation
We welcome all the new friends in Canadian defence land to our forward operating base. But we dislike horrendous hot takes, like this one from former Defence Minister (!) Jason Kenney.
Canada can source locally, and do it quickly…
📋 Procurement Updates
About that sourcing locally…
Canada has a wildly impressive network of SMBs throughout the defence supply chain. That includes newer companies too: Cohere was (and is still, we hope) selling its services to Canada’s cyber security agency.
Toronto tech entrepreneur Raymond Luk has taken matters into his own hands, creating a conference this fall called SOURCE, focused on building Canadian tech through procurement. Lots of defence implications. Get in touch if you want to be connected to Raymond.
Bottom Line: We recommend Alex Karp’s The Technological Republic for everyone looking for a primer in how Canada begins to address our most urgent challenges.
Related:
The U.S. Army has just selected Canada’s Ultra Communications’ ARCHER Troposcatter System as its next-generation Beyond-Line-of-Sight (BLOS) communications capability. Congrats to Friend of the Newsletter Alain Cohen!
🌏 International Developments
Israel strikes Iran
Israel launched airstrikes on Iran, targeting nuclear and military sites in and around Tehran. Iranian media report that Brig. Gen. Mohammad Bagheri, commander in chief of the Armed Forces and second highest commander after the supreme leader, has been killed in a targeted strike.
The operation likely involved advanced stand-off weapons, electronic warfare, and possibly cyber elements. Watch for details on munitions used and any evidence of Israeli stealth or drone assets.
Canadian defence tech companies should expect increased demand for missile defence, cyber resilience, and counter-drone solutions - both domestically and from allies.
The strike will accelerate global interest in hardening critical infrastructure against state-level threats.
😬 Meme Warfare
We welcome all newcomers to our forward operating base:
🔫 Hot Shots
It’s a bird, it’s a plane: No, it’s just the soaring costs of Canada’s F-35 procurement. The planes are set to cost 50% more than initial estimates. That new defence procurement agency can’t come soon enough.
You don’t need to get ready if you stay ready: Friend of the Newsletter, and Yukon Premier, Ranj Pillai, has been doing yeoman’s work for the past 2.5 years building the Arctic Security Institute.
One of us, one of us: The Canadian military meets its recruitment target for the year, and hits a 10 year high!
Sky rockets in flight: Reaction Dynamics secures the final capital required to complete development and qualification of its RE-202C hybrid rocket engine — the propulsion system that will power Aurora-8 on its maiden orbital flight.
Money printer go brrrr…: The Royal Canadian Navy is using 3D-printed components to extend the life of its four Victoria-class submarines.
Production race: Russia is now matching NATO’s annual ammunition output in just three months.
🤝 Meet the Defence Tech Community
The Icebreaker is co-hosting two events during Toronto Tech Week
Arctic Edge: Canadian Defence Innovation and Investment, June 24: Sign up here. The event will feature a cross-section of speakers from innovation, the public sector, and the investor community.
Defence Tech Patio Drop In, June 27: Sign up here to join VCs, founders, operators, defence primes, and the defence-curious, over a few cold beers on a sunny patio.
These events are officially part of Toronto Tech Week 2025, a weeklong citywide collection of events to connect and celebrate the builders.
If you’ve got battlefield intel, classified tips, or just want to call in an airstrike on our typos, hit “reply” and sound off. Whether it’s a new tech sighting, a rumour from the mess hall, or feedback on our comms, we want your SITREP.